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Pennsylvania is a gas-dominant state where natural gas is relatively affordable at $1.60/therm. The savings case for switching from gas to a heat pump is real but modest. The strongest case comes from replacing oil or propane. Here are the honest numbers for 2026.
Based on a typical 2,000 sq ft PA home with 55 million delivered BTU/year heating load. Heat pump assumes cold-climate model with seasonal COP of 2.8 (Zone 5A average).
| Heating Source | Fuel Price | Efficiency | Annual Cost | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural Gas | $1.6/therm | 92% | $1,300/yr | ~815 therms/year (typical PA gas-heated home) |
| Heating Oil | $3.4/gallon | 85% | $2,300/yr | ~675 gallons/year |
| Propane | $2.85/gallon | 90% | $2,100/yr | ~735 gallons/year |
| Electric Resistance | $0.2/kWh | 100% | $2,400/yr | ~12,000 kWh/year |
| Heat Pump (COP 2.8) | $0.2/kWh | COP 2.8 | $860/yr | ~4,300 kWh/year (heating only, COP 2.8 seasonal avg for Zone 5A) |
Modest savings at PA gas rates. Strongest when combined with AC replacement.
Strong savings case. Common in NE PA (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area).
Good savings case. Common in rural PA where gas lines are unavailable.
Dual-fuel (hybrid) systems are the most popular heat pump configuration in Pennsylvania's Zone 5A. They pair a heat pump with your existing gas or oil furnace as cold-weather backup.
Heat pump runs exclusively. High efficiency (COP 3.0+). Handles 70-80% of PA heating hours.
Heat pump runs with reduced capacity. COP drops to 2.0-2.5. Still more efficient than gas in most cases.
Smart thermostat switches to gas furnace backup. Only 5-10% of PA heating hours. Protects against extreme cold.
Design temp: 8–13°F | HDD: 4,800–5,400
Design temp: -2 to 6°F | HDD: 5,700–6,600
Design temp: -5 to -10°F | HDD: 6,600–7,500
It depends on your gas rate and climate zone. At PA average rates ($1.60/therm gas vs $0.20/kWh electric), a heat pump with COP 2.8 costs about $860/year for heating vs $1,300/year for a 92% efficient gas furnace — roughly $440/year savings. However, this advantage shrinks in Zone 5A/6A cold snaps when heat pump efficiency drops, especially with older standard models. Cold-climate models and hybrid systems close the gap.
If your gas furnace is working well and under 15 years old, the pure economic case for switching is modest at current PA gas prices. The strongest case for switching is if you have an aging furnace AND need AC replacement — combining both into a heat pump saves the cost of two separate systems. Oil and propane users see a much stronger savings case.
A dual-fuel system pairs a heat pump with your existing gas or oil furnace. A smart thermostat automatically switches to the furnace backup when outdoor temperatures drop below a set balance point (typically 25-30°F). This gives you heat pump efficiency for most of the winter while avoiding the edge cases where heat pumps struggle. It is the most popular configuration in PA Zone 5A.
In Zone 4A (Philadelphia/SE PA), heat pumps perform well as primary heating most of the winter, with design temps of 8-13°F. In Zone 5A (most of PA), winter design temps reach -2 to 6°F, making cold-climate models essential and dual-fuel popular. In Zone 6A (extreme north), design temps of -5 to -10°F make dual-fuel strongly recommended.
Yes, the savings case is much stronger. Heating oil at $3.40/gal costs about $2,300/year for a typical PA home, and propane at $2.85/gal costs about $2,100/year. A heat pump at COP 2.8 costs roughly $860/year — savings of $1,200-$1,400+ per year. At these savings rates, even a $17,000 heat pump system pays for itself in 10-13 years before utility rebates.
Seasonal COP varies by climate zone and equipment. In Zone 4A (Philadelphia), expect seasonal average COP of 3.0-3.5. In Zone 5A (most of PA), cold-climate models achieve seasonal COP of 2.5-3.0. In Zone 6A (extreme north), expect 2.2-2.8. Standard (non-cold-climate) models can drop below COP 2.0 when temperatures fall below 15°F, making cold-climate equipment critical.
A Manual J load calculation from a HICRA-registered installer will tell you exactly what system your PA home needs and what the real savings will be.
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