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New tariffs, China's VAT rebate elimination, and FEOC manufacturing rules are pushing solar panel prices 10-15% higher in 2026. Every month you wait costs more. Here is the data.
10-15%
Price Increase
25-75%
Tariff Duties
Jul 4, 2026
FEOC Deadline
Solar panel prices declined steadily from 2010 to 2024. That era is over. Three converging forces are reversing the trend in 2026 — and none of them are temporary.
These three forces stack. Tariffs raise import costs. China's VAT elimination raises the global floor price. And FEOC rules constrain supply of compliant panels. The result is a 10-15% increase in installed solar system costs by the second half of 2026. This is not speculation — tariff rulings are public record, the China VAT timeline is confirmed, and the FEOC deadline is set by law.
Solar pricing is not changing all at once. Each force hits at a different point. Here is the timeline so you can see exactly when each price increase takes effect.
The window is closing, not opening
Every milestone on this timeline adds cost. There is no upcoming event that reduces prices. The tariff environment is becoming more restrictive, not less. The cheapest solar will ever be for the foreseeable future is right now.
Let us put real numbers to this. A typical Northeast residential solar system today (10.7 kW, Silfab 440W panels) costs approximately $32,000 installed. Here is what that same system will cost as each tariff and policy change takes effect.
These projections are based on published tariff rates, the confirmed China VAT schedule, and current domestic panel pricing from FEOC-compliant manufacturers.
| Scenario | System Cost | Price/Watt | Energy Savings Lost | Federal Credit | True Cost of Waiting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy Now (March 2026)BEST | $32,000 | $2.98/W | $0 | $0 (homeowner cash/loan) | $32,000 |
| Wait 6 Months (Sept 2026) | $35,200 (+10%) | $3.28/W | $1,600 (6 months) | $0 | $36,800 |
| Wait 12 Months (March 2027) | $36,800 (+15%) | $3.43/W | $3,200 (12 months) | $0 | $40,000 |
Buy Now (March 2026)
BESTWait 6 Months (Sept 2026)
Wait 12 Months (March 2027)
Waiting 12 months costs ~$8,000
$4,800 in price increases plus $3,200 in lost energy savings. That money is gone forever — it does not come back when you eventually buy.
No improvement in federal credits
The residential ITC is dead. There is no legislative effort to restore it. Waiting for a “better deal” from Washington means waiting for something that is not coming.
This is the most common question we get. Let us break down the math honestly.
This was true from 2010 to 2024. Solar module prices fell roughly 90% over that period. But the decline was driven by Chinese manufacturing scale and government subsidies. Both of those forces are now working in reverse:
Verdict: Prices may stabilize in 2-3 years as domestic capacity scales, but a return to 2024-2025 lows is not expected. The structural cost of US-made panels is simply higher.
The residential ITC (Section 25D) was repealed by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025. There is no current legislation to restore it. Even if a new Congress proposed a restoration:
Verdict: Waiting for a tax credit restoration is a gamble with bad odds. You are guaranteed to lose energy savings while waiting for something that may never happen.
Current residential panels (440-460W, 22%+ efficiency) are already excellent. The next meaningful efficiency jump (perovskite tandem cells, 30%+) is 3-5 years from residential-scale production. Meanwhile:
Verdict: The best time to start saving on your electric bill was yesterday. The second best time is today. Future technology improvements do not offset years of lost savings.
Tariffs are not all bad news. The shift toward domestic manufacturing and FEOC-compliant supply chains is producing higher-quality panels with better traceability and stronger warranties.
A word of caution about “cheap” imported panels
Some installers may try to offer low prices using non-FEOC imported panels to undercut tariff-adjusted pricing. Be careful. These panels may face retroactive duties, do not qualify for bonus ITC credits through Propel, and come with warranty enforcement risk if the manufacturer has no US presence. The 5-10% savings today is not worth the risk.
Even with 10-15% higher panel prices and no federal tax credit, the Northeast remains one of the best places in the country to go solar. Why? Because your electricity rates are among the highest in the nation — and every kilowatt-hour your panels produce offsets those expensive utility charges.
Connecticut
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Maine
New Hampshire
New Jersey
National average is $0.16/kWh. You pay $0.26-$0.29/kWh.
Northeast homeowners pay 60-80% more for electricity than the national average. That premium is what makes solar ROI so strong here — even with higher panel prices. A system that takes 14 years to pay back in Alabama pays back in 8-10 years in Massachusetts, Connecticut, or Rhode Island. Higher rates also mean your energy savings are worth more each year as utility prices continue rising 3-5% annually.
Yes. Multiple converging factors are pushing solar panel prices higher in 2026: new anti-circumvention tariffs on Southeast Asian imports (25-75% duties), China eliminating its VAT export rebate (0% as of April 1, 2026), Section 232 polysilicon tariffs, and FEOC domestic content requirements creating supply constraints for compliant panels. Industry analysts project a 10-15% net increase in installed solar costs by late 2026.
Based on current projections, a system that costs $32,000 today could cost $35,200-$36,800 by late 2026 — an increase of $3,200-$4,800 in equipment and installation costs alone. When you add lost energy savings ($3,200+/year in the Northeast), waiting 12 months could effectively cost you $7,000-$8,000 more than acting now.
The residential solar tax credit (Section 25D) expired December 31, 2025. Homeowners who purchase solar with cash or a loan receive $0 federal tax credit. However, Section 48/48E (the commercial ITC) is still available for third-party system owners who begin construction before July 4, 2026. Financing structures like Propel use this provision to pass savings back to homeowners.
China provided a Value Added Tax (VAT) rebate on exported solar panels — effectively a government subsidy that kept global panel prices artificially low. This rebate dropped from 13% to 9% in 2025 and reaches 0% on April 1, 2026. Since Chinese manufacturers control approximately 80% of global solar cell and module production, the rebate elimination raises the floor price for solar panels worldwide, including panels assembled in the US using Chinese-origin cells and wafers.
FEOC stands for Foreign Entity of Concern. Under the Inflation Reduction Act and subsequent OBBBA rules, solar panels must be manufactured without components from FEOC-designated entities (primarily Chinese state-affiliated companies) to qualify for bonus ITC credits. Only a few US manufacturers — including Silfab, Mission Solar, Qcells, and First Solar — currently meet FEOC standards. Limited supply of compliant panels combined with rising demand creates a premium of 2-4% above non-FEOC panel pricing.
Unlikely in the near term. The tariff environment is becoming more restrictive, not less. Final AD/CVD determinations in H2 2026 could increase duties further. China's VAT rebate elimination is permanent. And FEOC requirements are designed to permanently shift manufacturing away from Chinese-controlled supply chains. Domestic manufacturing capacity is scaling, but it will take 2-3 years before supply catches up with demand. Prices may stabilize, but a return to 2024-2025 pricing levels is not expected.
Be cautious. Imported panels from countries facing anti-circumvention investigations carry retroactive duty risk — meaning tariffs could be applied after the fact, and your installer could pass those costs through. Additionally, non-FEOC panels do not qualify for bonus ITC credits if you use third-party financing like Propel. FEOC-compliant panels (Silfab 440W, Qcells, First Solar) provide supply chain certainty and full ITC eligibility.
Yes, especially in the Northeast where electricity rates are among the highest in the country ($0.26-$0.29/kWh). Even at 10-15% higher panel costs with no federal tax credit, solar payback periods in New England remain 8-11 years — and panels produce electricity for 25-30+ years. State incentives (SMART in MA, ADI in NJ, REF in RI, ConnectedSolutions) further reduce costs. The question is not whether solar is worth it, but whether waiting makes it less worth it. The data says yes.
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FEOC Solar Deadline 2026
Everything about the July 4 FEOC deadline and what it means for your install.
Every month you wait, tariffs, VAT changes, and supply constraints push prices higher. Get a free solar estimate at today's pricing — no obligation, no pressure.