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We serve MA, NH, CT, RI, ME, VT, NJ, PA, and TX
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The federal 30% residential solar ITC expired December 31, 2025. No more Section 25D credit for homeowner purchases. Here is the honest math on whether solar still makes financial sense in each of the 9 states we serve.
9
States Analyzed
$0
Federal Credit
7-14yr
Payback Range
Active
Sec. 48 Status
Last updated: February 2026. Based on NuWatt project data across 9 states.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed July 4, 2025, repealed the Section 25D residential solar Investment Tax Credit effective December 31, 2025. This means homeowners who purchase solar with cash or a loan receive zero federal tax benefit.
Section 48/48E Deadline
The commercial ITC (used by lease and PPA providers) is available for projects that begin construction before July 4, 2026. After that date, lease and PPA pricing will increase. If you are considering a lease or PPA, act before this deadline.
Based on an 8kW system. Cash and loan payback assumes no federal credit. Lease shows day-one savings because the financing company claims Section 48/48E.
| State | Rate ($/kWh) | $/W | Cash Payback | Loan Payback | Lease/PPA | State Incentive | 25yr Savings | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts | $0.28 | $3.15 | 8 yr | 10 yr | Day-1 savings | SMART $0.03/kWh (20yr) | $92,000 | Strong Buy |
| Connecticut | $0.27 | $3.10 | 9 yr | 11 yr | Day-1 savings | RRES rebate | $85,000 | Strong Buy |
| Rhode Island | $0.29 | $3.05 | 8 yr | 10 yr | Day-1 savings | REF $0.65/W + REG | $96,000 | Strong Buy |
| New Jersey | $0.26 | $3.00 | 7 yr | 9 yr | Day-1 savings | ADI $85.90/MWh (15yr) | $98,000 | Best Value |
| New Hampshire | $0.27 | $3.03 | 10 yr | 12 yr | Day-1 savings | NEM 2.0 (~85% retail) | $72,000 | Good |
| Maine | $0.27 | $3.05 | 11 yr | 13 yr | Day-1 savings | NEB 1:1 net metering | $68,000 | Good |
| Vermont | $0.22 | $3.20 | 12 yr | 14 yr | Day-1 savings | Net metering 1:1 | $55,000 | Moderate |
| Pennsylvania | $0.21 | $3.00 | 12 yr | 14 yr | Day-1 savings | SRECs (declining) | $52,000 | Moderate |
| Texas | $0.15 | $2.80 | 13 yr | 14 yr | Day-1 savings | Utility rebates vary | $48,000 | Long Payback |
* Payback assumes 3% annual utility rate increase. Lease/PPA day-one savings means your monthly payment is less than your current electricity bill from day one. 25-year savings are for cash purchase including state incentives.
Solar savings depend on your roof, utility rate, and state incentives.
Estimate My SavingsWhile the federal credit is gone, several states maintain robust incentive programs that significantly reduce net cost and shorten payback periods.
$85.90/MWh production incentive for 15 years. An 8kW system earns roughly $10,300 over the program lifetime, making NJ the best state for solar economics in 2026.
NJ Solar GuideREF rebate at $0.65/W (up to $5,000) plus the REG program paying $0.27/kWh for 15-20 years. Combined, these programs offset most of the lost federal credit.
RI Solar GuideSMART 3.0 pays $0.03/kWh for residential systems for 20 years. Low-income adder brings it to $0.06/kWh. Paired with the highest utility rates in the region, MA remains a top solar market.
MA Solar CostsThese states have limited or no upfront rebates, but strong net metering policies and rising utility rates still make solar a good long-term investment. Payback ranges from 9-14 years with 25-year savings of $48K-$85K.
In 2024, buying solar was almost always better than leasing because homeowners could claim the 30% ITC. In 2026, that math has flipped. The third-party system owner (financing company) can still claim the Section 48/48E commercial ITC, giving lease and PPA providers a significant cost advantage.
| Factor | Cash Purchase | Loan | Lease / PPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upfront cost | $22K-$26K | $0 down | $0 down |
| Federal tax credit | $0 (expired) | $0 (expired) | Company claims 30% |
| Day-one savings? | No | Maybe | Yes |
| 25-year savings | Highest | Moderate | Lower |
| System ownership | You own it | You own it | Company owns it |
| Home value impact | +4% | +4% | Neutral |
We believe in honest advice over hard sells. Here are situations where solar may not be your best investment in 2026:
If you pay less than $0.12/kWh, payback periods stretch beyond 15 years. This applies to parts of Texas with competitive retail rates and some rural co-ops.
If your roof gets less than 4 hours of direct sunlight, solar production will be too low for reasonable payback. A ground mount may work if you have land.
While solar adds ~4% to home value, the transaction complexity may not be worth it for a very short stay. A lease with transferable terms could work.
If your roof needs replacement in the next 5 years, do the roof first. Removing and reinstalling solar adds $3,000-$5,000 to the roof project.
With utility rates rising 3-5% annually, every year you wait costs you more in electricity bills. And if you are considering a lease or PPA, the Section 48/48E commercial ITC deadline is July 4, 2026 -- after that, lease pricing will increase.
$2,400
Annual utility cost (8kW offset)
at $0.27/kWh
3-5%
Rate increase per year
historical average
$2,520
Year 2 cost if you wait
+$120 wasted
$2,780
Year 5 cost if you wait
+$1,400 total loss
Comprehensive state-by-state analysis with detailed incentive calculations.
Compare lease and PPA terms now that Section 48/48E is the only federal credit.
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