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NuWatt designs, installs, and manages solar, battery, heat pump, and EV charger systems across 9 states. One company, one warranty, one point of contact.
Get a Free QuoteFive modeled Texas commercial solar scenarios with cost, incentive, production, payback, and financing assumptions. The July 4 begin-construction window has closed; projects starting now generally must be placed in service by December 31, 2027.
Case Studies
5
Across TX metros
System Sizes
150-1,000 kW
Warehouse to industrial
Payback Range
2.5-5 yr
With ITC + MACRS
ITC Range
30-50%
Base + adders
Five modeled Texas planning scenarios produce payback estimates ranging from 2.5 to 5 years under different utility, pricing, financing, and tax assumptions. They are not verified NuWatt customer projects or guaranteed outcomes. A decision-grade result requires the site's bill and tariff, mount and interconnection scope, financing terms, and documented Section 48E eligibility.
Modeled scenario disclosure
The profiles below are planning scenarios built from current market pricing, utility, incentive, and production assumptions. They are not verified NuWatt customer projects or guaranteed outcomes. A real proposal requires site, structural, utility, interconnection, financing, and tax-eligibility review.
These five modeled scenarios span different Texas metro areas, building types, utility territories, and financing approaches. They illustrate how Section 48E, tariff, pricing, and ownership assumptions can change preliminary economics. Projects starting now generally must be placed in service by December 31, 2027.
Each scenario includes installed cost, modeled ITC adders, depreciation tax value, annual energy savings, buyback revenue, and payback assumptions. The inputs use 2026 Texas planning ranges and are not a quote. Because Texas has no state income tax, the examples model federal tax benefits only.
For detailed ROI modeling of your specific project, use our Commercial Solar IRR Calculator. For MACRS depreciation schedules, see our MACRS Depreciation Calculator.
TX commercial solar spans warehouses, offices, schools, retail, and industrial facilities — each with unique economics.
300 kW Rooftop — Cash Purchase
Building Type
Distribution Warehouse
Location
Houston, TX (CenterPoint territory)
System Size
300 kW DC
Panels
545 x 550W hail-rated panels (IEC 61215 Class 3)
Mount Type
Ballasted rooftop (flat roof, 10-degree tilt)
Annual Production
450,000 kWh (1,500 kWh/kW — Houston area)
Total Cost
$435,000
$1.45/W
Financing
Cash Purchase
Buyback Rate
$0.089/kWh (1:1 REP buyback plan)
Payback Period
5.0 years
200 kW Rooftop — C-PACE Financing
Building Type
Multi-Tenant Office Park
Location
Dallas, TX (Oncor territory)
System Size
200 kW DC
Panels
364 x 550W bifacial panels
Mount Type
Ballasted rooftop (flat roof, 10-degree tilt)
Annual Production
310,000 kWh (1,550 kWh/kW — Dallas area)
Total Cost
$310,000
$1.55/W
Financing
C-PACE (20-year term, 7.5% fixed rate)
Buyback Rate
$0.095/kWh (100% buyback negotiated with REP)
Payback Period
4.0 years
500 kW Across 3 Buildings — Direct Pay ITC
Building Type
Public School District (3 campuses)
Location
Austin, TX (Austin Energy territory)
System Size
500 kW DC (150 kW + 175 kW + 175 kW)
Panels
910 x 550W panels across 3 buildings
Mount Type
Rooftop (2 buildings) + carport (1 building)
Annual Production
800,000 kWh (1,600 kWh/kW — Austin area)
Total Cost
$650,000
$1.30/W
Financing
Cash (bond-funded) with Direct Pay ITC
Buyback Rate
$0.0991/kWh (Austin Energy Value of Solar)
Payback Period
2.5 years (after Direct Pay)
150 kW Carport — PPA Model + EV Charging
Building Type
Retail Strip Mall with Parking
Location
San Antonio, TX (CPS Energy territory)
System Size
150 kW carport solar
Panels
273 x 550W panels on steel carport structure
Mount Type
Steel carport structure over parking lot
Annual Production
240,000 kWh (1,600 kWh/kW — San Antonio area)
Total Cost
$0 upfront
$0 upfront (PPA model)
Financing
Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) — $0.065/kWh, 3% annual escalator, 20-year term
Buyback Rate
$0.035/kWh (CPS Energy avoided cost)
Payback Period
N/A ($0 upfront)
1 MW Ground Mount — Cash Purchase, Maximum ITC Stack
Building Type
Industrial Manufacturing Facility
Location
Midland-Odessa, TX (Oncor territory, energy community)
System Size
1,000 kW (1 MW) DC
Panels
1,820 x 550W US-manufactured panels (domestic content)
Mount Type
Ground-mount, single-axis tracker
Annual Production
1,700,000 kWh (1,700 kWh/kW — West TX with tracker)
Total Cost
$1,150,000
$1.15/W
Financing
Cash Purchase
Buyback Rate
$0.065/kWh (REP buyback for industrial account)
Payback Period
3.0 years
| Metric | Houston | Dallas | Austin | San Antonio | Midland |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| System Size | 300 kW | 200 kW | 500 kW | 150 kW | 1 MW |
| Cost/W | $1.45 | $1.55 | $1.30 | PPA | $1.15 |
| Total Cost | $435K | $310K | $650K | $0 | $1.15M |
| ITC Rate | 30% | 40% | 50% | N/A | 50% |
| ITC Amount | $131K | $124K | $325K | PPA | $575K |
| Payback | 5.0 yr | 4.0 yr | 2.5 yr | N/A | 3.0 yr |
| Financing | Cash | C-PACE | Direct Pay | PPA | Cash |
| Buyback | 8.9c | 9.5c | 9.91c | 3.5c | 6.5c |
The comparison reveals that ITC adder stacking has the single largest impact on payback period. The projects achieving 40-50% ITC (Dallas, Austin, Midland) all reach payback significantly faster than the standard 30% ITC project (Houston). This underscores the importance of identifying every applicable bonus — energy community, domestic content, and low-income — before finalizing your project. For more detail on ITC stacking, see our Commercial Solar in Texas 2026 guide.
The buyback rate is the second most important variable. Austin Energy VoS (9.91 cents/kWh) and competitive REP buyback plans (8.9-9.5 cents/kWh) support aggressive sizing, while CPS Energy avoided cost (3.5 cents/kWh) makes oversizing unprofitable and favors PPA structures. For carport-specific ROI, see our Solar Carport ROI Calculator. For municipal and nonprofit projects like the Austin school district, see our Municipal & Nonprofit Solar Guide. For C-PACE financing details, see our TX C-PACE Guide.
In these modeled Texas scenarios, payback estimates range from 2.5 to 5 years depending on system size, documented ITC adders, financing, utility territory, pricing, and buyback assumptions. These figures are planning examples rather than measured customer outcomes; a project-specific model must verify every input.
Get a project-specific Texas commercial solar analysis using your facility, utility tariff, site constraints, financing, and verified incentive eligibility.